Gillick's Adventures

I'm not one to criticize off-season moves right away and jump to conclusions. You just never know how it's going to turn out. That's why even though I've heard grumblings about the Phillies' acquisition of Brad Lidge for our young talent, it's a move that could turn out VERY good if things go well.

Yes, losing Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo hurts. Fastest player on the team and third baseman of the future (supposedly). But it's not like you can get a proven closer for nothing, and I think the Phils got a good deal from Ed Wade's new team.

The most obvious result of the trade: Brett Myers can now move back into the rotation. So in essence the Phils got a starter out of the deal, just by the fact that Lidge will probably be the closer. It's an upgrade to the rotation, but you can argue it makes our bullpen slightly worse (Myers > Lidge).

Look at Lidge's numbers over the past three seasons:

2005: 42 saves, 2.29 ERA
2006: 32 saves, 5.28 ERA
2007: 19 saves, 3.36 ERA

He was one of the best closers in baseball just three years ago. But the next year his numbers significantly declined. Last year, despite a good ERA, he blew 8 saves and didn't even win the closer spot on the team until July. Bottom line, if Lidge can get back to '05 form, this is a terrific deal for the Phils, but how likely is that in a pitcher's purgatory like Citizens Bank Park? Bottom line, he's a better option than Flash Gordon.

I also like the recent Pat Gillick signings: Geoff Jenkins, Chad Durbin, So Taguchi. Not great players, but I think they're guys who can be role players to complement the heavy hitters on the team.

Jenkins has the most promise of the three. He'll platoon with Jayson Werth in right field (Victorino moves to CF to compensate for the loss of Rowand), but his lefty bat will provide the Phils' offense with even more versatility. Take his 21 homers and 64 RBI from last year, combine it with Werth's production against lefties, and there's reason to believe we could see 30 homers and 100 RBI from right field. And you have to imagine Jenkins' numbers will only go up as he starts to hit in the friendly confines of the Bank.

Chad Durbin started 19 games for Detroit last year, and I have to imagine he's a better option in the rotation than Adam Eaton (isn't everything?). I wouldn't mind seeing him as the 5th starter in the rotation behind Hamels, Myers, Kendrick and Moyer. That would move Eaton to the bullpen, which would be iffy, but I think Durbin deserves the chance to start. At the very least Charlie Manuel should try it out, because I guarantee he turns out to be better as a starter than Eaton. Funny enough, he may be battling the other (J.D.) Durbin for that final starting spot.

And finally, the So Taguchi signing completes the bench (Werth, Coste, Bruntlett, Dobbs/Helms). He's a good player to have on the bench, as he batted .290 last year with an OBP of .350. Should an outfielder go down with injury, Taguchi's ability to play any outfield position makes him a valuable long-term solution to that problem (like if Victorino goes down again). He's also 37 and has been part of a World Series team, so his experience should suit the younger players well.

Gillick's moves haven't been flashy, but it looks to me as if the pieces are being put in place for another run n gun season. Pitching is still an issue - the rotation is shaky and the bullpen lacks depth. The lineup is poised to score a lot of runs again, but Gillick needs one more proven pitcher. I think adding one more big-time pitcher to either the rotation or bullpen puts the Phillies in the driver seat in the division. But they probably won't get that guy, so expect many more slugfests at the Bank in 2008.

-ajd