Guest Preview: Villanova Wildcats Take Two

We asked Villanova by the Numbers for a look at the Wildcats before their second game against Syracuse this year.

Here's what Villanova by the Numbers had to say:

Meet the Wildcats:
Coach Wright has been tinkering with the starting lineup for over a month now. Of the five Wildcats who started the season opener (Scottie Reynolds, Reggie Redding, Shane Clark, Dante Cunningham and Casiem Drummond), only three (Reynolds, Redding and Cunningham) started in Villanova's last outing (a road loss at Pitt) Wednesday evening. Like Syracuse, the Villanova squad has had it's share of injuries and turnover. Among the starters Casiem Drummond has been sidelined since late December with a stress fracture in his foot and tests are being performed to determine if the source of Shane Clark's persistent fatigue is physical. Andrew Ott, a 6-10 redshirt freshman frontcourt player announced his departure from the team last Saturday. He enrolled at Penn State on Wednesday. Who will start on Saturday is, then, the source of some speculation.

The Backcourt:
Villanova has three talented guards in Scottie Reynolds (sophomore), Corey Fisher (freshman) and Malcolm Grant (freshman). Expect to see two of those three on the court throughout the game, whether they start or not, Having two point guards on the floor simultaneously, has given the Wildcats multiple options on offense.

Scottie Reynolds will start. Scottie, a sophomore, has started all 19 of Villanova's games this season and is averaging 34.3 minutes per game, so expect to see a lot of him. During the out of conference portion of the season Scottie averaged 16.9 points and 4.4 assists. In Big East play Scottie's scoring has risen to 18.5 points per game while his assists have dropped to 3.3, suggesting he is taking more of an off guard role lately. Scottie is capable of great scoring efforts like his 32 point outburst (11-22, 5-11 3 pointers) against Cincinnati. He can also be ice cold, as he was in Villanova's first game with Pittsburgh (4 points on 1-6 shooting). The 'Cats will need 17 or more points from Reynolds if they are going to win.

As for the other backcourt position, Coach Wright will most likely choose one or two from Corey Fisher, Malcolm Grant and Reggie Redding.

Corey Fisher, a starter in the last two games, will, despite a disappointing outing against Pittsburgh (4 points on 2-10 shooting), may well start against Syracuse too. Fisher, a true freshman who was named New Jersey HS Player of the Year at St. Patrick's his senior season, has struggled to develop consistency this year. He has had great shooting and scoring nights, like the Wildcat's Big East road opener against DePaul (23 points on 8-15 shooting), and nights lide Wednesday against Pitt. Corey's assist-to-turnover ratio in Big East play is 0.95:1, more evidence that he is struggling in conference play.

Reggie Redding is a 6-5 sophomore off guard who worked his way into the rotation late his freshman year and subsequently started the first fourteen games before going to the bench. He returned to the starting lineup on Wednesday (in place of ailing Shane Clark?) and will most likely start against the Orange. Redding's main contributions are solid defense with an occasional well-timed crucial play.

The Frontcourt:
Dante Cunningham is a junior who has been a constant fixture in Villanova's starting lineup over the past three seasons. For the past two seasons Dante and (now graduated) Will Sheridan covered the #4/#5 spots in tandem, with Dante playing the #4 on defense and the #5 on offense. With Cas Drummond on the court Dante will play the #4, but with Drummond's injury last month, Cunningham has returned to a "rotating" role, depending on who the staff plays beside him. Cunningham's role in the offense has increased this season, though he had more success when Drummond played the #5 and drew a good deal of defensive attention. Cunninham has averaged 8.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in Big East play to date.

Antonio Pena is a redshirt freshman (6-8, 235lbs) who has started the last five games beside Cunningham. Pena and Cunningham now continue the #4-#5 tandem as did Sheridan and Cunningham for the past two seasons. Pena averages 10.4 points and 6.5 rebounds in Big East play.

The Bench:
For the backcourt, expect to see Malcolm Grant at some point in the game. Malcolm has averaged 14.4 minutes per game in Big East play, but his run has ranged from 27 minutes in Villanova's first game with Pittsburgh (22 points) down to 8 minutes in two separate games (versus Cincinnati -- 0 points scored -- and the second Pittsburgh game in which he scored 3 points). Dwayne Anderson has seen his playing time nearly double in Big East play. If the trend holds, he will see about 16 minutes of playing time. Corey Stokes, the second MDAA on Villanova's roster, has seen about 16 minutes of play in the Big East and contributed 3.6 points and 2.6 rebounds per game in Big East play. Casiem Drummond saw 7 minutes againt Pittsburgh on Wednesday and will no doubt, depending on his progress, see some time against Syracuse as well. Shane Clark is due for some (medical) diagnostic testing this week and may or may not be available for Saturday's game. At the top of his game Shane is very effective as the third or fourth scoring option and is a strong offensive rebounder (ranked #357 in D1 by Ken Pomeroy).

What Villanova Does Best:
Offense flows from defense according to Villanova's staff. Villanova is good at forcing turnovers. When the Wildcats are playing "their game" those turnovers will translate into points. The Wildcats are agressive at both ends of the floor. If they are living at the free throw line the opponent is losing players. Villanova runs a variation of the 4 out 1 in motion offense in the half court. They look for opportunities for their guards, either Reynolds or Fisher, to get into the lane. Something good offensively most often happens then...either the guard will shoot (or draw contact), dish down low to Cunningham (or lately Pena), positioned along the baseline, or kick it out to someone on the wing for a possible 3 point shot. Villanova may be one of the quicker teams in the conference, but they do not play a fast paced game. Comeback wins were a common phenomena earlier in the season.

How to Beat Villanova:
Get up early, as Villanova tends to "start slowly" on defense. The recent spate of half-time deficits are most often the product of blown assignments on switches and playing too passively while on defense. When the 'Cats are down, the freshmen guards tend to push too hard to try and make up the scoring deficit. If Villanova presses or traps, break it quickly (usually with passes to bigs positioned in the middle of the court) and take it to the basket when you are over the half-court line. Scoring off of broken presses neutralizes one of Villanova's most effective defensive weapons
(the turnover). If you are operating your offense from half court sets, run screens and picks, as Villanova has struggled all year with switches coming off of screens. Run them enough and you should get a favorable matchup (usually a guard on one of your bigs) which maximizes your chances to score. If you have a stable of outside shooters, run plays to isolate your guard who should then hit the lane. Another defender will move over to help on the penetration, leaving his own man free on the outside to take a pass and shoot. Villanova is currently ranked #319 (out of 341) in 3 point defense.

Get Dante Cunningham into foul trouble early. The rest of the frontcourt are freshmen and not especially agressive when Cunningham is not there to set the tone.

Check back with Villanova by the Numbers tomorrow for our preview of Syracuse.

Providence College Team Preview

We asked the Black Padres to give us insight on those pesky Friars from Providence.

Here's what Jason from Black Padres has to say.

If you're good enough to predict the winner in a Big East game this season, then you're a psychic and need to solve cold cases for the police. For the average person, we don't have a clue; if we decided to use the statistic that home teams win 78% of their games in the Big East to pick the winner, we still lost: Providence goes on to beat UConn in Connecticut, UConn defeats Cincinnati in Cincinnati, and Seton Hall rolls over Providence in Providence in just the last week. It's no use. To predict the outcome of the Providence at Syracuse game on Sunday will be difficult; however, I think three things will decide who wins this game regardless of where it's played: defensive rebounding, zone defenses, and turnovers.

First of all, whoever holds the other team to one-and-done possessions will have a big advantage. According to Ken Pomeroy's ratings, both these teams can shoot the ball very well. Syracuse is effectively making around 54% of their baskets while Providence is effectively hitting around 52% percent of their shots. Both teams can't afford to give the other team a second (or third or fourth) chance to score because it will happen.

Secondly, who will play a better 2-3 zone defense? The 2-3 zone defense which is geared to protect the paint and force the perimeter players to shoot the three-pointer. The Friars make about 39% of their three-point baskets, which looks like Syracuse will have a problem. The orange hit around 35% percent of their three-pointers, but they want to, and can, take it inside because PC lacks an inside presence. Syracuse may have no problem scoring their 55% from inside the arc even in Providence's 2-3 zone.

Finally, Providence lacks a true point guard. They need to follow Bob Huggins philosophy when his point guard went down in Cincinnati: create turnovers. Providence is fairly adept at causing turnovers on defense.

If Syracuse is hitting the offensive boards like they're known to, score inside and outside Providence's 2-3 zone defense, and Providence can't force Syracuse to turn the ball over on offense, it will be the Friars' second straight loss.

Georgetown Guest Preview

As shocking as this may seem, we've decided to team up with a Georgetown blog called Hoya Hoops. They've provided us with an in depth look at the 2008 Hoyas.

Here's what they've got to say:

The Inside Scoop on Georgetown

So Far This Year:
Georgetown is 14-2 on the season and 4-1 in league play. They lost at #2 Memphis and at #15 Pittsburgh, meaning they are still perfect on their home court at Verizon Center. They are the only remaining Big East team with just one conference loss. In their last game this past Saturday, they blew out Notre Dame 84-65.

Who To Look Out For:
Roy Hibbert was the preseason Big East Player of the Year, and at 7’2’’, he is a tough matchup throughout the Big East. He was dominant against DePaul and Notre Dame, two teams that tried various defenses against him. He also had success against Connecticut when being defended by the 7’3’’ Hasheem Thabeet. Because of Georgetown’s variation of the Princeton Offense, Hibbert’s numbers are not overwhelming, but he’s a good passer, and he makes it a lot easier on the perimeter players.

Who Else To Look Out For:
Austin Freeman is one of the most talented freshmen in the conference. He’s averaging 12.6 points per game in Big East play and 43.8% from three-point range on the season. He also has a good mid-range game and was effective finding the gaps in Notre Dame’s 2-3 zone. Look for him to try and do the same against the Orange.

How They Win:
Many different ways, actually. The Hoyas can win with Hibbert’s scoring, as he had 21 against Notre Dame. They can win with hot shooting; they made their first seven field goals against DePaul and never looked back. They can win with good defense, as they held Rutgers to 31.1% shooting. And they can win down the stretch, like when Hibbert made the game-winning three-pointer with 4.2 seconds left to beat UCONN.

Why They Lose:
In Georgetown’s two defeats this year, their three-point shooting was abysmal, going 3 for 14 (21.4%) against Memphis and 3 for 20 (15.0%) against Pitt. On the season, they average 39.8% from behind the arc.

Besides the occasional off-shooting night, the Hoyas have the tendency to give up a lot of offensive rebounds. In their conference opener against Rutgers, Georgetown prevailed in spite of allowing 22 offensive rebounds. Syracuse’s team athleticism could create a lot of second chance points.

WVU Guest Preview Mountaineer Style

We've decided to do something different with our Syracuse basketball previews. We've asked a fellow blog to give us a preview of their team because everybody knows their own team the best. So we asked Andy Brown from WV Mountaineers Sports to give us a really nice look at the Mountaineers basketball team. You can check out of WV Mountaineers Sports for all the West Virginia sports information you'll ever need.

Here's what Andy had to say about WVU:
The West Virginia Mountaineers under legendary head coach Bob Huggins carry an 11-4 record to Sunday's matchup against the 'Cuse. They've recently faced a tough four-game stretch that started with Oklahoma then carry on to Notre Dame, Marquette, and a recent road date to Louisville losing 3 of 4. This tough stretch has improve their RPI ranking to 28th with a Strength of Schedule ranking at 34 according to realtimerpi.com.

The 'Eers are led by rising Big East star Joe Alexander. Alexander has insane athletic ability and can hit the J from anywhere. Look at those numbers he averages 16.1 ppg with 6.1 rebounds and shoots an excellent 85% from the foul line. Alexander's quality wingman is the Rainmaker Alex Ruoff. A fiery leader on and off the court he leads the team with 16.2 points per game and 45% from the three point line. Rounding out the starting lineup are quiet but steady senior PG Darris Nichols, smooth and savvy sophomore Da'Sean Butler who tends to get in foul trouble too much and senior Jaime Smalligan.

The bench is relatively short with Jacob Green leaving the team but remains set nonetheless with freshman F John Flowers, sophomore Wellington Smith, and backup guard speedy Joe Mazzulla. Walk-on guard Ted Talkington might see some times too. Who can forget Teddy T raining some 3's last year against UCLA. Could happen Sunday.

What has troubled the Mountaineers recently is lack of ability to handle the rebound. The rebounding margin has greatly improved since John Beilein left, at one time it was one of the worst in the nation, but still give up the put-backs. Any team with a frontcourt would own WVU as Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Louisville did. WVU can only go as their 3 point shot takes them. The WVU Coliseum is one of the great arenas in college sports.

There are 14,000 rabid Mountaineer fans who come to support the Mountaineers whenever the Big East gets rolling. The students are what makes the crowd as they wear the gold shirts and stand on their feet the entire game. West Virginia will be a worthy opponent for the 'Cuse as it is shaping up to be a classic on Sunday.


I'd like to say good luck West Virginia Sunday, because they'll definitely need it. We look forward to working with WV Mountaineer Sports You can check out WV Mountaineers Sports for my preview of Syracuse for Sunday's game.