Providence College Team Preview

We asked the Black Padres to give us insight on those pesky Friars from Providence.

Here's what Jason from Black Padres has to say.

If you're good enough to predict the winner in a Big East game this season, then you're a psychic and need to solve cold cases for the police. For the average person, we don't have a clue; if we decided to use the statistic that home teams win 78% of their games in the Big East to pick the winner, we still lost: Providence goes on to beat UConn in Connecticut, UConn defeats Cincinnati in Cincinnati, and Seton Hall rolls over Providence in Providence in just the last week. It's no use. To predict the outcome of the Providence at Syracuse game on Sunday will be difficult; however, I think three things will decide who wins this game regardless of where it's played: defensive rebounding, zone defenses, and turnovers.

First of all, whoever holds the other team to one-and-done possessions will have a big advantage. According to Ken Pomeroy's ratings, both these teams can shoot the ball very well. Syracuse is effectively making around 54% of their baskets while Providence is effectively hitting around 52% percent of their shots. Both teams can't afford to give the other team a second (or third or fourth) chance to score because it will happen.

Secondly, who will play a better 2-3 zone defense? The 2-3 zone defense which is geared to protect the paint and force the perimeter players to shoot the three-pointer. The Friars make about 39% of their three-point baskets, which looks like Syracuse will have a problem. The orange hit around 35% percent of their three-pointers, but they want to, and can, take it inside because PC lacks an inside presence. Syracuse may have no problem scoring their 55% from inside the arc even in Providence's 2-3 zone.

Finally, Providence lacks a true point guard. They need to follow Bob Huggins philosophy when his point guard went down in Cincinnati: create turnovers. Providence is fairly adept at causing turnovers on defense.

If Syracuse is hitting the offensive boards like they're known to, score inside and outside Providence's 2-3 zone defense, and Providence can't force Syracuse to turn the ball over on offense, it will be the Friars' second straight loss.