Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Syracuse-Depaul Men's Preview

The ladies showcase their skills tonight against Depaul, but the men also travel to Chicago for a Wednesday night showdown with the Blue Demons.

The Blue Demons have been somewhat of an enigma thus far this year. They looked like they might struggle to make the Big East tournament, but now they are playing pretty strong basketball.

Depaul began the season 2-7 with losses to Creighton, Vanderbilt (Depaul blew a huge lead in the second half), Mississippi, city rival Illinois-Chicago, Clemson, and North Carolina A&T which is one of the most embarrassing losses for any Big East team this year.

They also have a home loss against Georgetown and road losses at Villanova and Marquette. The Blue Demons have two marquee wins on their schedule. They took down Villanova and Syracuse's last opponent Providence.

Overall, Depaul is 9-10 and 4-3 in the conference, and is 115th in the RPI.

Ken Pomeroy's statistics suggest that Syracuse should win this game 81-77 and has a 64% chance of winning the game.

Depaul has been okay on defense this year and pretty good offensively. They rank 60th in the country in offensive efficiency and 160th in defensive efficiency. They have been pretty consistent in their efficiency both defensively and offensively throughout the non-conference and conference schedules.

Depaul likes to play an up tempo game, but not to the extent of Syracuse. Depaul plays at an average pace of 68.7 possessions a game while the Orange have been playing at 73 possessions a game. They have slowed down to about 70 possessions per game in Big East play. Generally, teams that have made Syracuse play the tempo they want to play, Syracuse loses. When Syracuse plays a more up tempo game they win.

Depaul doesn't do too many things very well, but do a lot of things very poorly. They do limit their turnovers. They are 36th in the country in lowest turnover percentage. The Blue Demons are 30th in the country in limiting their opponents to get the free throw. That's been a strong point for the Orange this season, so it will interesting to see if the Orange can get the ball down low to Paul Harris shot 13 free throws against Providence.

Statistically, Depaul is absolutely abysmal, but overall their defensive efficiency isn't terrible. Teams have a 52.4% effective field goal percentage against Depaul, 268th in the country. Opponents shoot 40% from three against Depaul, which makes their three point defense 326th in the country. They are also near the bottom in opponents free throw percentage, defensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, and blocking shots. Absolutely terrible numbers, but yet they are still middle of the pack in defensive efficiency. When I figure that out, or if anyone can figure out how that's possible let me know. This one time the stats might lie, because it's hard to believe you can do everything wrong on defense, but still overall be average.

Keys for Syracuse:
Contain Draelon Burns. He's their best scoring option, and one of only a couple guys that can take a game over consistency. He's 80-95 from the line so don't foul him. Anyone else on this team, I would say hack away, but Syracuse doesn't have the depth to play hack a Shaq.

Extend the 2-3 zone. Depaul has five guys averaging making one three-pointer a game. All nine players seeing nine plus minutes a game have hit a three-pointer this year. The outcome of this game could easily just come down Depaul's ability to hit the three.

Depaul has experience players, Syracuse doesn't. Coach Jim Boeheim needs to make that a non-factor. The average player on the floor for the Demons has 1.9 years of playing experience. Syracuse's average player has 0.6 years which is second worst in the country.

Final Prediction: Syracuse 75, Depaul 68. I have confidence Syracuse will continue their stellar defensive play and will shut Depaul down. The Orange have jumped to 60th in the country in defensive efficiency, up from around 100th where they were during most of the non-conference schedule. Their three-point defense has improved greatly. They were around 250-275th most of the season, now they are 166th. This team is quickly getting better defensively. They are also getting much better at limiting offensive rebounds, moving up in the rankings at the same pace as the three-point defense. I think Syracuse will continue this trend and force Depaul into bad shots all game and finally get a win on the road in the Big East. This is their most winnable remaining game on the road.

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