NHL/Flyers Bracketology

I don't know if NHL Bracketology exists anywhere across the intertubes because I couldn't find any, so I thought I'd be the first to take a shot at it. It's very easy to sit here and say oh well the Flyers are sixth in the conference right now, that must be where they will finish. I'm going to take a look at their schedule, taking in account their home/away splits, back to back games, and opponents to see where about this team will finish after 82 games.

The Flyers currently sit 6th in the conference with a 24-15-5 record, good for 53 points. They've also only played 44 games which is tied for the fewest in the conference. The Flyers are under .500 record wise at home at 9-5-5, but points wise they are above .500 as they've tallied 23 points in 19 games. On the road they are much better. They are 15-10, good for 30 points in 25 games. They are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. Things are looking much better for this team in 2008 as they get some more of their key players back from injury. The Flyers also have a very solid goal differential at plus 18 which is second in the conference. This suggests the Flyers record isn't quite as good as it should be.

I'm going to breakdown how they should finish in eight categories: how they will fare at home against each Eastern division, the road against each Eastern division, and home and road against the Western conference. Remember this whole bracketology is based on projections according to how the Flyers have performed thus far.

Home against Eastern Division: The Flyers have nine remaining home games against Atlantic Division teams. Against their division, the Flyers are 7-5-1 this year. Following this trend the Flyers should go about 5-3-1. They should get 11 points out of nine games.

Home against the Northeast Division: They have five remaining game against Northeast Division teams. Against that division, the Flyers are 4-4-2. Following this trend, the Flyers should go 1-2-2 as they've struggled at homes at times. They should get four points out of five games.

Home against the Southeast Division: They have five remaining games against Southeast Division teams. Against that division, the Flyers are a very strong 10-2-2. Look for about a 3-1-1 record in those five games resulting in seven points.

Home against the Western Conference: The Flyers have just three games at home against Western teams, so probably a 2-1 record is most likely for four points.

Road against Atlantic Division: They Flyers travel to Atlantic Division foes ten times the rest of the year. They have a strong record on the road of 15-10, so a 6-3-1 record would probably be the best bet. They would record 13 points in 10 games.

Road against the Northeast Division: They Flyers are on the road five times against these teams. Their record suggests a 3-1-1 finish against them for seven points in five games.

Road against the Southeast Division: The Flyers only go south one more time this year. Look for that game to be a win. That means two points in one game.

Road against the West: The Flyers are done going west for the year.

In the Flyers remaining 38 games, they should approximately tally a 20-11-7 record which will score them 47 points. The Flyers would then finish with 100 points on the year.

This pace would put them in a virtual tie with Pittsburgh and New Jersey if you just project their current point totals of 82 games. Both those teams would finish with either 100 or 101 points based on their current play. The Flyers could easily play at a better pace as projected if healthy. Now that Simon Gagne is back, the Flyers are playing even better. They have scored 20 goals in four games which is their best four game stretch of the season. Gagne missed 26 games with a concussion and the Flyers struggled compared to the beginning of the season before he went down. If the Flyers stay healthy that 38 game stretch could turn into somewhere around a 23-9-6 record for 52 points in 38 games and 105 on the season which should win the division.

This would also probably net them a two or three seed in the playoffs. That would be quite the turnaround: almost from worst to first in one year.