The Big East is a Big Mess

When someone figures out the secret to predicting who will finish where in the Big East, please tell me. What is going on in this conference this year? (And I don't want to hear it's as simple as the home team wins all the time) As each conference game passes, it becomes more and more unpredictable and chaotic. Teams that are supposed to win handily lose inexplicably, and teams that are supposed to be walked over by the bigger programs string together a few wins. I know we're only half way through the conference season, but look at this nonsense in no particular order:

Pitt beats Georgetown
Villanova beats Pitt
Rutgers beats Pitt
Villanova beats Syracuse
Syracuse beats Rutgers
Cincinnati beats Villanova
Cincinnati beats Syracuse
Seton Hall beats Cincinnati
DePaul beats Villanova
West Virginia beats Marquette
Providence beats UConn
UConn beats Marquette
Marquette destroys Providence

If you can find a pattern there, you're good. And look at the conference records:

10 teams are at either 4-3, 4-4 or 3-4
That means 1 game seperates 13th place from 4th place!

I am in no way a college basketball expert and I don't pretend to be one. But I think I can recognize when something is spinning out of control. What gives for the unusually high number of upsets and the crowding of the teams in the middle? It's possible there's just a lot of really talented teams in the Big East that beat each other up night after night. On the contrary, is it also plausible that there are just a lot of mediocre teams in the conference and only a couple who are actually really good? Whatever the reason, it seems to me that it would be tough for this conference to get a lot of teams into the NCAA tournament if most of them finish in the 9-7 range. The committee won't be so quick to take 6-7 teams from the Big East if only 3 or 4 have 10 or more conference wins (which appears to be where we're headed with this season's trend).

Right now, I think there's only one lock. And that would be Georgetown. I do not think there is any other team in the conference right now that could be considered a lock for selection. Maybe Pitt, but what a surprise, they lost to Rutgers at home and two of their best players are out for the season. Villanova looks awful right now. Louisville appears to be on the upswing, but they have to keep playing well. Notre Dame still has to run into a tough part of their schedule. And then there are a bunch of teams who are right on the cusp (UConn, Marquette, West Virginia, Seton Hall). And of course, don't forget CuseAdelphia's favorite son, Syracuse.

That's a lot of teams competing for only a few spots. And I see no reason to believe they're all going to continue to beat each other up as the season goes on. With the way this season has gone thus far, I can't imagine more than 4 teams in the Big East finishing with 10 or more wins, and that's going to create a possible quandary for the selection committee come March. Besides Georgetown, no team looks overwhelming. Of course, no team looks particularly bad either (excluding a few teams of course). A lot of really good teams beating each other up, or a lot of average teams doing the same? Tough to tell, but it's going to mess down the stretch either way.

The bottom line here is, of course, do not count Syracuse out of tournament talk yet. As we can plainly see, anything can and will happen in college basketball. Hopefully things will take a clearer shape in February.

-ajd