Syracuse-Villanova Preview

Just Below is our take on the Wildcats. You can check out a Villanova look at the game here.

The Orange take on Villanova in the Carrier Dome Saturday at noon in what will be the 'Cuse's biggest conference game at home so far.

Villanova enters the game with a record of 12-3, but that record is inflated. 'Nova has only one quality win so far this year against a Pitt team that was playing its first Big East game without both Levance Fields and Mike Cook.

The Wildcat's Pomeroy rating stands at 73rd because of their extremely weak schedule and 43rd in the RPI. They have losses at NCST, at Cincinnati, and at Depaul. This team is young and hasn't played well on the road yet. This gives reason to believe Syracuse should have a significant home court advantage. Ken Pomeroy's site predicts Syracuse to be 88-79 wins over Villanova and that Syracuse has a 77% chance of winning this game. So far that site has been pretty accurate in predicting the outcomes of Syracuse's games. Pomeroy's site is 15-3 at predicting the outcome of the Orange's games.

Villanova likes to play an up tempo game behind Scottie Reynolds, one of the most dynamic guards in the Big East. Reynolds last year was an excellent free throw shooter, but this year Reynolds and most of the rest of the team has struggled from the line. Reynolds is shooting only 73% this year compared to 83% last year.

'Nova is a very inexperience team which is evident in their Pomeroy ranking for experience. The average player on the court throughout the game has just 0.9 years of experience in college basketball which is 14th worst in the country. 'Nova gives five freshman at least ten minutes a game, and two sophomores 25 minutes a game. This team has very little experience playing on the road in the Big East which will be a big time factor in front of a Loudhouse crowd that will probably approach 25,000.

Villanova also has very bad size for a Big East team. They feature just two players over 6'6'' that get significant playing time. If Syracuse can really shut down the Wildcat's two post players, Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark, and get them in foul trouble, Arinze Onuaku, Paul Harris, and Donte Green can really go after the offensive boards and create second opportunities.
Villanova's lack of size nearly cost them against Pitt. The Panthers were able to grab the rebound on 52% of their misses, an astounding number.

Jay Wright's teams also play aggressive defense, they like to go for the steals and force as many turnovers as possible. Teams that can get past their aggressive defense usually don't have a problem scoring. 'Nova isn't ranked in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. To put that in perspective, Syracuse has been hanging around between 70th and 90th all year and people complain S.U. has a terrible D.

Jonny Flynn will really have to be careful with what he does with the ball. It's going to be on him to make it past Villanova's pressure defense and find his teammates open for easily scoring opportunities.

My Three Keys to the Game:

• Give the ball to Arinze Onuaku down low and find Donte Green within seven feet of the basket for jump shots.
• Jonny Flynn most control the game offensively. If he makes good decisions, this team should roll offensively.
• Get the ball out of Scottie Reynolds's hands. He burned Syracuse at Villanova last year for more than 30 points and he'll do it again if you let him play his game. The Wildcats don't have too many consistent scoring options other than Reynolds, so don't let him beat you.

My final prediction: Syracuse 86 Villanova 76.