More Goosebumps in 2008?

We are almost exactly a month away from pitchers and catchers. And that means it's time to get pumped for your Phightin' Phils in 2008! After completing the (statistically) greatest regular season comeback in the history of baseball, the Phillies have even bigger expectations for their encore performance. Their first division title in 14 years puts even more pressure on Charlie Manuel and his ballclub to succeed in '08. So what exactly is in store for the Phigthin's this year? Well, there are a few things that could be improved:

FOR ONCE GET OFF TO A GOOD START
I don't need to remind Phillies fans of the lackluster Aprils of baseball's past. We all know this team has a tendancy to come out of the gate slow (very slow in fact), and last year illustrated this point the best. A 3-10 start put the Phils in the basement early, and from there it was catch up for the next 143 games until Philly finally took the lead in the division. How about we put ourselves in a better position after the first month of the season for once? Yeah, the team showed it has enough talent to overcome a disastrous April, but getting off to a hot start wouldn't kill anybody.

TRY TO STAY HEALTHY
Ryan Howard. Chase Utley. Brett Myers. Cole Hamels. Freddy Garcia. Jon Lieber. Tom Gordon. Shane Victorino. Ryan Madson. I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody. None of these guys could make it through the full season, and it hurt the team. No team lost more man-games to injury in 2007 than the Phils, and still they were able to win 89 games. I don't forsee another season in which so many key guys go down for extended periods of time. But if they go through another year with so many players on the disabled list, we may not be so fortunate this time around.

BETTER BULLPEN PRODUCTION, DUH
Okay, we all know this is the Phils' achilles heel. I've never seen a team with such shoddy pitching out of the 'pen win so many games. The Phils went out and got Brad Lidge from Houston, hoping he can be the force he once was as a closer for the Astros. Tom Gordon, who was on/off last year, will set him up. There's a plethora of guys in front of them who will be competing for the remaining bullpen spots. Doesn't matter who's in there, just so long as they get the job done. We could see both Durbins, Condrey, Zagurski, lefty specialist Romero, Matheison, Madson and the list goes on. Good-Time-Chollie needs to find the right mix.

With the off-season essentially over, it's pretty safe to say what we have now is what we'll have when the season starts. Here's what the opening day lineup should look like, at least if I were running team:

vs. Washington Nationals (righty Jason Bergmann is projected starter)

SS Jimmy Rollins - L
CF Shane Victorino - L
2B Chase Utley - L
1B Ryan Howard - L
LF Pat Burrell - R
RF Geoff Jenkins - L
3B Greg Dobbs - L
C Carlos Ruiz - R

Few lineups, if any, in either league can match the firepower that the Phils have. There are six lefties to go against a right-handed pitcher, four to lead off, which is excellent news. There's incredible speed at the top of the order, solid power in the middle, and great protection behind Howard in the form of slugger Burrell and a couple of lefties in Jenkins and Dobbs. Of course, Manuel could switch things up a bit. He may hit Jenkins in front of Burrell, or hit Ruiz in front of Dobbs to mix the right-left combination up. No matter what he does, though, there's a little bit of everything in that lineup (speed, average, power). Here's what the lineup SHOULD look like against a lefty starter:

SS Jimmy Rollins - R
CF Shane Victorino - R
LF Pat Burrell - R
2B Chase Utley - L
1B Ryan Howard - L
RF Jayson Werth - R
C Carlos Ruiz - R
3B Wes Helms - R

Thanks to the miracle of switch hitting, the Phils can have six righties go up against a left-handed pitcher. Manuel worked Burrell into the 3-hole toward the end of last season and got serious results, so I wouldn't be surprised to stick him there again. However, it's also possible he would put him in cleanup and let Utley hit ahead of him. Either way should work equally. Werth replaces Jenkins and Helms replaces Dobbs because they're righties. Helms bats behind Ruiz because he's Helms. This lineup isn't as fierce or scary, but it still has a solid top of the order and utility guys who bat well against lefties.

Here's what the Phillies would have on the bench most nights:

C Chris Coste
OF So Taguchi
OF Jayson Werth
3B Wes Helms
IF Eric Bruntlett
OF Chris Snelling

I think Taguchi is a great pickup. He's a seasoned veteran who hits for average and is very fast. He adds a lot of depth in the outfield, and of course you have Werth as well to come in at any time against a lefty. Coste of course is a gritty player who will be on and off. A couple of guys who may or may not make the team are Bruntlett and Snelling. Neither one is very special, but they wouldn't make terrible role players to come off the bench. The depth on the bench is a little thin, but I think there are enough complementary players here to create a good mix of talent every night.

And here's what the starting rotation will probably be:

L Cole Hamels
R Brett Myers
R Kyle Kendrick
L Jamie Moyer
R Chad Durbin

The biggest story is Myers returning to the rotation after a year as the closer. He NEEDS to regain his old starting form if this rotation wants to have any teeth at all. Hamels will be solid, but who knows what we'll get from Kendrick in his sophomore season and Moyer is 45 years old. He showed serious signs of wear and tear late last year (discarding his incredible final day performance). I think Durbin beats out Adam Eaton for the final starting spot. I don't see how Eaton will get that spot back after last year's debacle. Manuel has to make that call. The key here is MYERS. He must get back to where he once belonged. If he does, the Phils have an awesome 1-2 punch with support behind them. Of course if he doesn't, the rotation won't be very scary to a lot of teams.

And now the part everybody's been waiting for, the BULLPEN...here are the guys who are a shoo-in to make the roster (at least I think so, I could be wrong):

R Brad Lidge
R Ryan Madson
L J.C. Romero
R Tom Gordon

These guys are veterans who will be on the 25-man roster to start the season. It would take some revelation in spring training to keep them off in my opinion. Lidge will be the closer and Gordon will set him up. Madson will be a long reliver and Romero is everyone's favorite lefty specialist. This team may live and die with the performances of Gordon and Lidge. Both are aging veterans who have seen better days. Lidge needs to regain his old form and Gordon has to do just enough to hold most leads for him. It's not so much to ask, is it?

Two spots left, who are the combatants?

R J.D. Durbin
R Scott Matheison
R Clay Condrey
R Adam Eaton
L Fabio Castro
R Francisco Rosario
R John Ennis
L J.A. Happ
L Mike Zagurski

Yes, I know Adam Eaton is on the list. Really, do YOU think he's good enough to cut it on a division champion's roster? Well, he probably is just good enough and would be taken over the majority of these guys. I really don't see him in the rotation. Condrey has proven to be decent and has a good shot at claiming a spot. J.D. Durbin started a few games last year and wasn't bad out of the bullpen. Matheison is back from injury and we're not sure what we'll get from him. I'm not going to talk about the rest of the guys individually, but I imagine this will be a tough choice for the Phils. There are a lot of guys on this list who stepped up their games last year during the pennant race, but there won't be room for all of them. And THEN there are some younger guys who will try to make it as well. It's up in the air. No matter what, it seems the Phils are choosing between average and below-average players.

There will be a more extensive overview of the entire league when we do the MLB 2008 preview right before the season starts, but these are the basics for the Phillies for the upcoming season. If they want to repeat as division champions, their pitching must come through. In my opinion, the key guys will be Myers, Lidge and their 5th starter. Yes, of course the rest of the guys are just as important, but I think the line between good team and playoff team rests on those three. Myers and Lidge have to get back to what they do best, and that 5th starter (whoever it will be) has to be a major upgrade from the disaster that was Eaton. The lineup can play with anybody. It's the pitching, and those three in particular, that will determine the fate of the Phillies in 2008.

-ajd