2008 Sixers Preview/Breakdown

Before the Korver trade happened, the Sixers were fixing to end 2007 on a high note. I would have even bet they squeezed into the playoffs. The playoffs are still not entirely out of the picture, as the Sixers are 14-21 in 11th place. Only five games separate teams 4-13 in the lackluster Eastern Conference. However, I don’t think the Sixers will make the playoffs.

This team is going to fall apart. The collapse has already started. I know you readers are probably sick of my dwelling on the Korver deal, but hear me out:

Billy King was fired. My immediate reaction: it finally feels good again to be a Sixers fan. But the honeymoon hardly lasted. Less than a month into his tenure, Ed Stefanski pulled the trigger on the Korver deal. You can argue all you want that this team will be fine without him, Philly can go out and get a free agent, Giricek will be gone after his contract expires, etc. All positives.

But this is the immediate future we’re talking about. The Korver deal has made everyone on the team realize that if Stefanski will trade a fan favorite who was also a major “do-gooder” in the community and close friend to most of the players on the team, no one is untouchable. The uncertain futures have everyone playing disjunct.

As I said, things were really starting to click before the trade and now all that has been washed away. Since the trade, the Sixers are
1-5. I don’t see that getting much better. Even after the trade deadline February 21 passes, there are no guarantees for any player on this team to come back next year.
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Should the Sixers prove me wrong and squeeze into the playoffs, a Celtics match-up would be most intriguing. The storied rivalry always makes Sixers-Celtics games interesting. As recently as 2006, the teams played to triple overtime. In the 2002 playoffs, Philly fought back from an 0-2 deficit in the then-best-of-five series to tie things up and then lost in the final game. It’s always a saga when these two teams meet. And you can bet the Sixers wouldn’t get swept. They wouldn’t even come close to winning the series, but they’d take at least one game.
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ANYWAY… things the team needs to improve on:

1. Box out, especially in late-game potential outcome-altering situations. It’s simple and requires no explanation.
2. Execute out of time-outs. I can’t tell you how many times this season I’ve seen the Sixers come out of a time-out only to turn the ball over.
3. Don’t rush shots. The young guns get a little over-excited sometimes and take unwise shots too early in the shot clock.
4. On that note, team basketball is key. Lou Williams is especially guilty of hogging the ball.
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Other important things to look for this season:

1. Watch the demeanor of the team as the trade deadline approaches. Nerves will be flying and the Sixers might end up adopting an every-man-for-himself attitude, whether the players are fighting to increase their trade stock with better teams or fighting to stay with the Sixers. At this point, I think the Sixers need to hold on to the Andres and Lou and go after a frontcourt presence.

2. The February 22 contest with the Magic is the Sixers’ first after the trade deadline. It will be interesting to see who is still on the team after the February 21 deadline.

3. March 19 is Allen Iverson’s first game in Philadelphia since being traded to the Nuggets last season. After Sunday night’s game, he said something to the effect of feeling like the Sixers through him away like a player who’d only been with the team for a day. Expect a lot of emotion on Iverson’s side, a lengthy ovation from the fans, and a crowd bigger than the Sixers have seen in a while.

4. Lou Williams will continue to improve. His progress this season has already been great. Last year, he averaged 4.3 PPG. This year, that’s up to 10.9. His minutes have doubled and Sweet Lou’s hitting 40% from three. He’s still got a ways to go with assists, rebounds, and steals, but that will come with time. He is now way more confident on the floor. He’s not afraid to drive to the hoop. In fact, the And 1 is becoming his signature play. He’s got lots of energy and is just excited to be out there playing NBA basketball. Remember—Williams came right out of high school. He never had the chance to play against the big boys in college and that definitely slowed his progress. His stint in the D-League, his expiring contract, and the increase in minutes have finally married Sweet Lou and the NBA. The fans cheering “LOUUUUUUUUUUUU” after he scores doesn’t hurt his confidence either. Look for big things from him as he continues to get better.

5. If you’re not watching this team play, then you’re not overly impressed with Thaddeus Young. But this guy’s a difference-maker. Early in the season Thad-Yo was seeing only limited action. I was at a game Thanksgiving weekend and my dad told me to look out for #21 when he came in the game. I started paying attention and I was impressed. He’s tall, long, and a great presence under the basket. Plus, the rookie also has an outside J and draws the defender away from the rim. He does a lot of the little things that don’t show up in the box score. He’s a nitty-gritty player and I’m glad he’s finally getting a chance to prove his worth to this team.
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End of the season prediction: The Sixers finish in 10th place, not good enough for a playoff spot but good enough that they don’t get a top five draft pick. And the Sixers being the Sixers, they probably wouldn’t fall in the top ten either. Philly will watch the postseason from home as Coach Cheeks remembers that playoff season 25 years ago when his team brought the city of Philadelphia its last major sports championship.
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This offseason is of monumental importance for the Sixers for several reasons:

1. Mo Cheeks has been on the brink of losing his job for a while now. In his two-plus seasons in the City of Brotherly Love, Cheeks has an 87-112 record. The Sixers have definitely underachieved during his tenure. As much as I like the guy and his history with the team etc, if Ed Stefanski is really going to tear this team apart and rebuild, he has to start at the top. That means Mo’s gotta go.

2. The Draft. The pick from Utah has to wait till at least 2009, but see end of the season prediction for why the Sixers won’t have a top 10 pick. Stefanski has to find the gold in the middle of the first round players.

3. Resigning Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams is big.

4. Andre Iguodala’s contract is up. Former GM Billy King could not agree on an extension with Dre before the season started. He’s a restricted free agent after this season, so the Sixers can match any offer sheet he receives. AI’s going to demand more money than he’s worth because a) the Sixers have unwisely convinced everyone that he is the future of the franchise even though he’s proven he is not capable of carrying this team and b) the Sixers will have a ton of cap room so AI can push for more money even though Philly needs those extra dollars to…

5. Go after a big name free agent. Someone who can work with Iguodala to create a strong 1-2 punch and bring this team back into contention. The Sixers need to focus on underneath the basket. Sammy Dalembert has drastically improved this season even though he still drops half the passes thrown his way. Imagine what a complimentary player in the paint could do for Sammy. He’d take some of the attention away.
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Key Free Agents to look at:

1. Elton Brand (Unrestricted) – Probably the Sixers best chance to get a big guy. At 28, he’s still fairly young. The numbers speak for themselves – over 20 points, 9 boards, and 2 blocks per game. Brand controls his own future and can choose where he lands this summer. Landing a guy like Elton would be huge in Sixerland. What’s keeping him in LA? It’s not like the Clippers are going anywhere anytime soon. Especially not in the Western Conference.

2. Josh Smith (Restricted) – This guy’s a gem. He just turned 22 and averages 17.9 points, 8 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks per game. He would be perfect for the Sixers young nucleus and he’s just what the team needs. However, he’s restricted. And Atlanta would be crazy to not match any offer he receives.

3. Emeka Okafor (Restricted) – His numbers are comparatively much lower; while Brand or Smith would be a better choice, Philly has to go with what it can get, so Okafor can’t be totally forgotten in all this.

4. Big name free agents who would never want to play for the Sixers… but hey, a girl can dream: Shawn Marion, Allen Iverson, Baron Davis, Jermaine O’Neal… the list goes on. Want to see for yourself? ESPN.com has a complete list of free agents for 2008.

Additionally, I say bring back Theo Ratliff. Pay him the minimum. He’d be great coming off the bench, especially if Mo Cheeks is still the coach. Where did that outburst come from, you ask? I was a big Theo fan back in the day. Trading him because he was injured in 2001 was the moment I knew Billy King was no good. Took Ed Snider nearly seven more years to figure that one out. Then he hired Stefanski. Ok, enough dwelling on things I can’t control.

If Stefanski likes risks he could always go after Ron Artest.

Let’s just say the new GM will be under very close scrutiny from me and many others this year. The Sixers are starting fresh in 2008 and only time will tell just how fresh.

Will Ed Stefanski clean house?
Orchestrate a brilliant deal?
Keep quiet at the trade deadline and go after a big-name free agent?
Still be the Sixers GM when the 2009 preview rolls around? (KIDDING. It took Ed Snider long enough to fire Billy King. We’re stuck with Eddie Boy for a while…)

~emz