By No Means is Syracuse's Season Over

I've been checking out a lot of talk on the message boards and discussions taking place in comments on syracuse.com and what is out there is just ridiculous.

Yes, Syracuse doesn't have the greatest resume right now and will need to win some tough, hard games the rest of the year. What the majority of the rest of the world doesn't realize is, it's not how good your resume is, it's how it compared to the other teams out there.

Right now, Syracuse looks pretty darn good against a lot of teams they are competing against for the last five or so at large bids in the tournament.

Last night was a prime example of this.

Duquesne beat Dayton which put both teams at 16-7, however Duquesne is 6-4 in the A-10 and Dayton is 4-6. Both are bubble teams. Now if Duquesne finishes 9-7 in conference which is very likely with their remaining schedule and Dayton can get to 8-8, do you think they would take those teams over a Big East team that's 9-9 (and to get those nine wins they would have beaten some very good teams). The answer is no as long as Syracuse wins a game in the Big East Tournament.

Also Rhode Island lost to Temple last night 92-89. The Rams are now 6-4, for them to make the tournament over Syracuse they would need to finish at least 9-7 which could be difficult with their remaining games in the A-10. Charlotte's bubble also burst last night. They had a chance to beat Xavier last night, but couldn't a close game out. They drop to 5-4 in the A-10 and already have nine losses.

The last two nights really hurt a few SEC schools. Florida, Ole Miss, and Kentucky all took steps back. Florida lost to a terrible LSU team (a comparable loss for Syracuse to South Florida). The Gators are now 19-6, 6-4 in the SEC and have one of the worst out of conference schedules ever.
Kentucky was making a run, starting out 6-2 in the SEC, but suffered their worst loss in decades on the road in Vanderbilt. Had they finished 13-3 or 12-4 in league play would have made them an interesting case for the bubble because of their terrible start, but strong finish. The loss to Vanderbilt really throws that scenario out the window unless they dominate down the stretch.
Mississippi is this year's Clemson. Undefeated out of conference, 3-6 in conference and playing terrible. They are 17-6 in conference and if they don't get back to about 9-7 in conference which will be virtually impossible or go to the conference finals, they aren't getting in.

In the ACC, several more bubble teams are hurting the last two nights. Maryland's impressive run thus far in the conference ended with a pretty convincing loss last night at Duke. They are still 6-4 in conference and 16-9 out of conference, but have a terrible loss to American. NCST missed their chance to pick up a solid road win over BC tonight; this leaves the Wolfpack under .500 in conference including a complete embarrassment against North Carolina.

In the Big 12, Baylor has really started to fall off. After starting conference play 4-0, they've lost four of five including a bad road loss against Oklahoma State. This team has not been the same since winning in quintuple overtime at Texas A&M. What the Bears have going for them is, they have a lot of quality wins. Also in the Big 12, Oklahoma is largely considered in by a lot of "bracketologists," but they are 4-5 in conference and have lost three of their last four.

Davidson is another interesting case. They are rolling through the Southern Conference. Should they lose a game in their conference tournament after finishing their regular season slate in conference undefeated, I don't think they should be in. I commend them for going out and scheduling, UCLA, UNC, Duke, NCST, and Charlotte. People argue they should be awarded for this, and I agree with that to a point. The problem? They didn't win a single one of those games. They also went on the road to an above average MAC team in Western Michigan and lost. The NCAA Tournament at large builds are for the best teams not to win their conference tournament. How can this team be considered one of those teams when they lost every single test they had out of conference? They don't have a single quality win and don't deserve to be in the tournament should they lose their conference tournament.

In the Big East, there's really only two teams legitimately on the bubble, West Virginia and Syracuse. WVU has done enough to get in the tournament. I would be shocked if the Big East doesn't get at least seven bids. Their ability to get an eighth will come down to whether SU can win some big games down the stretch or if Seton Hall could go on an amazing run to get them back into contention.

Finally in the PAC-10, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, Arizona State, and USC are all on the bubble. They are all either 6-5, 5-5, or 4-5 in the conference right now. Any team that finishes 10-8 or better in that league is in. Any team that's 9-9 won't be in unless it's Arizona because of their great strength of schedule, any team that's 8-10 isn't getting in. That conference probably gets six teams in, UCLA, Stanford, and Wazzau are almost locks at this point. Out of those five teams above on the bubble, two should get to 10-8, Arizona will probably reach 9-9 because of a tough remaining schedule, but that should get them in as long as they win a game in the PAC-10 tournament.

Update, as I wrote those, South Alabama lost to Middle Tennessee State. Before this game, South Alabama was 20-4 and had just one loss in the Sun Belt Conference. They were another team that was considered a strong bubble team if they won out and then lost their conference tournament. This second loss in the Sun Belt is very damaging to their over profile.

Also, another Atlantic-10 team on the bubble fell tonight in another game comparable to Syracuse-South Florida. Fordham (who Syracuse handled early) beat UMASS in Amherst. This drops UMASS to 15-9. In all likelyhood, UMASS will finished with 11 or 12 losses. I can't see that A-10 team getting in over a 20-13, 21-13, or 22-12 Syracuse team, SU's three most likely records that would keep them in at large contention. UMASS would fall to 4-6 in the conference also. UMASS has a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way and can only afford to lose one more game in conference.

So overall, Syracuse 100% controls their own destiny. If they win four more games between the conference schedule and the Big East Tournament they are in this year. This isn't like last year when there was an obnoxious amount of 20 win BCS conference teams. 20 wins in any BCS conference will almost gaurenteed get the team in.